Five findings from INVI's study trip to Finland
Finland is one of the world leaders in policy innovation and foresight work. INVI has been on a study trip to Helsinki, and in this article you will learn the most important lessons about foresight, how it can be used to prepare for unforeseen events, and which concrete methods can help you understand the present and thus the future. First, you'll get some background on what foresight is, and then you can explore the methods and political thinking of the Finns.
Foresight - the future can bring us together in the present
"Foresight is not about predicting the future, it's about interpreting the present," Jaana Tapanainen-Thiess begins the meeting in a spartan basement room in the Prime Ministers Office in central Helsinki.
As Secretary General of the Government Foresight Group & Ministerial Foresight Panel in the Prime Minister's Office, she leads the creation of the foresight report, which is published once every four years - once in each government term. In this way, she spearheads the implementation of foresight in Finland.
Foresight is a way of scanning the horizon for the key challenges facing society. During each government term, all ministries contribute resources to create different future scenarios and recommendations on how to tackle them. Specifically, this means gathering analysis and holding workshops across agencies and ministries, and external experts, think tanks and citizens contribute input and insights.
The result is the Government Report on the Future, which is presented to parliament. The report fosters inter-ministerial cooperation and helps Finns stay ahead of sudden events, such as a pandemic or an invasion from the east.
The latest report was presented to parliament by then Prime Minister Sanna Marin in January 2023. In this way, the report forces ministers across ministries to deal with the major problems that exist in the present and may arise in the future.
The foresight report is a kind of practice run. It is an opportunity to create scenarios, consider the possible consequences, and thus better navigate the unforeseen situations when they arise.
Or as Jaana Tapanainen-Thiess puts it: "You can't prepare for the future if you can't imagine it."
The Foresight unit, led by Jaana Tapanainen-Thiess, is part of a larger ecosystem of policy innovation, all feeding in ideas and new ways of imagining the future. Learn more about the ecosystem and methods after the image.
INVI's secretariat in the square in front of the Prime Ministers Office.
An ecosystem of policy innovation
In addition to stopping by the Prime Minister's Office, we visited two think tanks, Helsinki Demos and Sitra, both of which work in the same field as INVI and have over 80 and 180 employees respectively.
Finally, we met Sirpa Kekkonen, former head of the strategy secretariat for several Finnish governments. Sirpa Kokkonen is one of the grand old ladies of policy innovation. She gave historical context to why Finland has prioritized policy innovation for so many years.
In her rusty voice, she emphasized one reason in particular that resonated across all the insightful people we spoke to on the trip: the 1340 km border with Russia.
The more or less constant threat from the East has forced Finland to be on the cutting edge, which is why they have been working for over 30 years to create future scenarios.
But even though Finland is far ahead of most Western democracies when it comes to political innovation, we also got the sense that it's porous, and even though Finns have been working on it for many years, they still struggle to massage innovation into the political system.
Sirpa Kekkonen, former head of the strategy secretariat for several Finnish governments
In this article you will find the five key findings from our trip to Finland and a bunch of links to immerse yourself in the innovative country to the north.
Experimental Finland and Humble government give you insight into some of the traditions and thinking behind policy innovation in Finland. Megatrends is a prism you can use to see the big developments in society, developed by the innovation foundation Sitra.
Finally, we point out two tools, Platform Polis and Megatrend Cards, that you can use yourself if you want to work structured with foresight.
-
Finland has established a strong political tradition of co-creation and experimentation, for example through the "Experimental Finland" initiative launched in 2015. This initiative focused on creating a humble and curious culture in policymaking, where the government actively supports citizens and relevant actors in developing and testing solutions. This included small pilot projects in areas such as AI, circular economy and digital workforce, as well as larger experiments, such as their now famous Universal Basic Income (UBI) trial. The government set up an experiment unit and opened a digital platform, 'kokeilunpaikka' - meaning 'place for experimentation'. Here people could read up on the results and analysis of previous experiments, get info on what kind of projects the government was looking for, and submit their own experiment. For example, in the 'Elements of AI' project, the Finnish government had a goal to educate 1% of its population about machine learning and AI. Programmer Teemu Roos heard about the goal and teamed up with a tech company to submit an idea. With the support of the government, they designed an online course that in one year had trained 7,500 citizens who had taken their 30-hour online course and passed. Nurses have tested robotic vests to help lift patients, and games have been developed that trained medical students in diagnosis. The government unit that facilitated 'Experimental Finland' no longer exists, but the culture of experimentation lives on in the Finnish political system.
Want to know more?
-
Humble governance is an approach to policy development that recognizes that governments can make mistakes, especially when dealing with complex and uncertain problems. Instead of believing that all solutions can be planned in advance, humble governance is based on a process of testing and revising policies in the face of reality. You don't "just" make a plan and force it on reality. You continuously follow up and adjust. The process must ensure continuous evaluation and revision, and it is subject to public transparency. The goal of Humble government is to promote flexibility and learning in political decision-making processes.
-
Megatrends describe the major and inevitable changes that typically take place on a global level. Megatrends are developments that are likely to continue in the same direction and shed light on the main currents in society. Megatrends help us understand the changes we face today and how they shape our future.
Sitra's megatrends for 2023 illustrate the big picture of change through five key themes: nature, people, power, technology and economy. These trends highlight how the carrying capacity of nature is under pressure, requiring an ecological transition. At the same time, demographic changes, such as an aging population and urbanization, are affecting our welfare system, and technological competition is intensifying, affecting the distribution of power globally.
What has already changed? What is changing right now? How are the changes related? What are the obstacles to change? What is possible?
These are key questions when identifying megatrends.
Want to know more?
Read the Sitra megatrend report here - and find out what they identified as megatrends in 2023
-
Taiwan has experimented with early versions of using Collective Intelligence to crowdsource not knowledge, but opinions. They brought in the Polis platform from the US, an open-source, online platform created to facilitate large groups to engage constructively around a topic. It is an anonymous AI-powered conversation-based survey tool and discussion platform that visualizes agreement and disagreement on various topics. Participants can submit statements in their own words, vote for statements they agree with, and the system groups the statements, highlighting areas of consensus and disagreement. Unlike typical social media, Polis minimizes personal attacks and heated debate by not allowing direct responses to comments. The platform was particularly used in Taiwan during debates on controversial topics such as the regulation of Uber. Although the debate was polarized in some areas, participants on the platform converged on some common ground, such as the need for a fair regulatory system for both Uber and traditional taxis. The collective insights informed government law-making in the field. A similar system has been experimented with in Sweden, the Netherlands and the UK, and is being further developed by Sitra - the Finnish Innovation Fund for Finland and the Nordics.
Want to know more?
-
The trend maps describe the changes that drive megatrends. The maps are a tool to stretch your thinking, create innovative solutions and envision future possibilities.
The use of the trend maps is almost limitless as they can be used for brainstorming, strategic planning or as inspiration in any context where you want to understand and influence the future. The cards offer a structured way to reflect on both current and future challenges and opportunities.
Want to try the cards?
Haven't you had enough?
Read aboutFinland's Futures Academy,Finish Society for Future here. To learn more about Jaana Tapanainen-Thiess' work with foresight, read about her'Government Report on the Future' here.
The Finnish government was the first in the world to establish a permanent committee for foresight, but much has happened since then. Today, similar units have been set up in Spain, Singapore, the UK and Canada, among others.
Wales has the world's firstFuture Generations Commissioner, tasked with looking after the interests of future generations. By looking into the future, they have almost stopped building roads in Wales, for example.
Monday Morning also talked to Jaana, and the result is an interesting article. The article is open to everyone, read it here.