INVI ATLAS #1: Do you have a crazy problem?
In this series, we take you inside the 'INVI ATLAS' - a collection of tools you can use when working with problems that turn out to be bigger and more complex than they appear on paper. In this first article, we start with the basics: What exactly characterizes a wicked problem?
Global warming, child and youth unhappiness and health inequality. Our democracy faces a number of wicked, entangled problems.
Problems where solutions and causal relationships developed behind the desk turn out to work completely differently when faced with reality. Major societal problems that, in the words of the Reform Commission, are "recognized, tried to solve, unsolved".
Causes and solutions in theory versus reality. Adapted from Virpi@businessillustrator.com
These problems have been addressed for years, but traditional policy tools have fallen short. Therefore, other policy tools are needed that create better opportunities for collaboration, experimentation and faster feedback from the implementation chain. A way that enables the involvement of relevant actors across all interfaces - from the politicians who enact policy at the front door of democracy all the way to the practitioners and citizens who implement and experience the consequences of policy at the back door of democracy.
This is the first article in the 'INVI ATLAS' series, where we take you through INVI's atlas of tools to help you navigate wicked problems. In the series, you'll get answers on how to get started tackling problems that can't be tamed by classic solutions.
We start with the most basic question: When is a problem really wild?
What is a wild problem?
The term 'wicked problems ' was introduced in 1967 by two design theorists from UC Berkley, Horst Rittel and Melvin Webber.
Since then, many skilled theorists have expanded knowledge about wicked problems, but despite the broad consensus that society faces a number of wicked problems that are difficult to deal with, it has been difficult to 'translate' wickedness so that it becomes practically applicable in a political reality.
That's why INVI has developed the wicked Problems Compass and Model in collaboration with an expert advisory group and a panel of over 1,000 practitioners. In the Compass, the myriad definitions of wicked problems are boiled down to four essential parameters: Causes, Solutions, Scale and Conflict.
INVI's Compass with the four parameters that characterize a wild problem
In INVI, we operationalize the four parameters using the wicked Problems Model. The model gathers input from a large group of relevant stakeholders who respond to open questions with text, speech and images. Using language models, the model categorizes and sorts the responses, giving an overall picture of how wicked the problem is on a scale of 0-100 on each of the four parameters of the compass. The closer to 100, the wilder.
But you can use the compass to manually explore if and how your problem is wild.
If you can answer 'yes, very much so' to most of the questions below, you are most likely working with a wild problem:
NORD: Is there uncertainty about the causes of the problem? This means that different stakeholder groups give very different reasons for the problem, and that stakeholders don't feel very confident about the root causes.
EAST: Is there uncertainty about the solutions to the problem? This means that different stakeholder groups provide very different solutions and that there is great uncertainty about which solutions are effective in tackling the problem.
SYD: Is there a large scale? This means that the problem cuts across many political levels and different sectors and disciplines, and that there are so many actors essential to tackling the problem that it is difficult to bring them together in a decision space.
WEST: Is there conflict around the problem? This means ideological differences and strong vested interests, different views on whether the issue is important to prioritize, and polarized value communities around the issue.
Below we elaborate on each corner of the world with examples.
NORD: Uncertainty about causes
wicked problems with a high degree of uncertainty about causes are characterized by:
There are many, scattered causes and the possible causes are inexhaustible. For example, there are a myriad of explanations for the increasing unhappiness of children and young people.
There is no single or clear cause, but many different explanations.
Causes are interconnected and hard to separate. Causes reinforce or are related to each other. For example, youth unhappiness where social media, social vulnerability, family life and school environment interact.
The reasons can change over time as society, technology or culture evolves. For example, in young people's screen usage, where new technologies and algorithms are constantly changing the challenges.
Example: Back in the 1990s, politicians debated whether global warming was primarily due to natural variability, volcanic activity, radiation and everything else. Different stakeholder groups had different views on what the causes were. It wasn't until the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 that a global consensus emerged on the primary cause of global warming: human emissions of greenhouse gases. Today, most people agree on that cause and measure progress based on greenhouse gas emissions. So global warming has gone from being a problem that is wildly uncertain about causes to being tamer on that parameter. Today, it can be argued that it is a problem of scale, and to some extent solutions and conflict.
ØST: Lack of clarity about solutions
wicked problems with a high degree of ambiguity about solutions are characterized by:
There are many scattered solutions, and the possible solutions are inexhaustible. For example, youth unhappiness can be tackled in a myriad of ways.
There is no definitive solution and there is a lot of uncertainty about their impact. For example, it is uncertain whether screen rules in schools actually increase children's well-being.
There are contradictions and trade-offs in different solutions.
There is no ultimate test for whether the solution works.
Example: Young people who are neither in work nor in education(the potential group) is an example of a wild problem with very unclear solutions. For many years, political solutions have been tried, but the number of young people in this group has not decreased. Proposed solutions range from getting young people into jobs with IPS (Individually Planned Supported Employment), initiatives for more after-school jobs and stronger recruitment to associations, more practical skills in primary schools and preventive solutions already when a child is born into a vulnerable family. In comparison, we have seen in our baseline studies that non-attractive public transportation is less wild on the solution dimension, where most actors point to the same well-defined solutions.
SYD: Scale
wicked problems with large scale are characterized by:
The problem cuts across many sectors. For example, gender equality, which cuts across all areas of government.
The problem cuts across many levels. For example, the greening of agriculture, where global food production, the EU CAP, and down to what each individual puts on their plate are connected.
There is high interdependency between sectors and levels.
There is great interdependence with other wicked problems. For example, attempts to tackle climate change in France with fuel taxes led to social unrest and the 'yellow vests'.
Example: Global warming is a good example of a wild problem characterized by large scale. It spans many different political levels, from the very local, to the EU and UN, because emissions know no national borders. At the same time, it can't be solved by a single organization or a single profession.
WEST: Conflict
wicked problems with a high degree of conflict are characterized by:
Conflicting interests in the distribution of resources and power, where some actors have an interest in maintaining the status quo while others push for change. For example, in the transition from fossil to renewable energy, many actors have material and habitual interests in slowing down the transition.
Differing opinions on prioritization. Disagreement among relevant population groups as to whether solving the problem is a high priority compared to solving other problems.
Polarized value communities. Different values between relevant groups in society about what is right, but high agreement within the groups.
Politicized topic, with a distinct political standpoint for each party. For example, in integration policy in the mid-1910s, where the parties positioned themselves sharply on the topic in relation to each other.
Example: The academic and social challenges in Danish public schools are a wild problem that has gone from being very wild on conflict to becoming tamer. Denmark's PISA scores dropped while youth dissatisfaction rose, but whose fault was that? Over the past 10 years, the parties involved in public schools have gone from high-voltage conflict, resulting in lockouts, to beginning to work together, including in the partnership 'Sammen om Skolen'.
Next time: Tools.
In the next articles in the INVI ATLAS series, we'll dive into tools for wicked problems. Now you know if your problem is wicked. But what should you do? As we've seen, wicked problems are not all the same. That's why we dive into INVI's atlas, which recommends different tools for different types of wicked problems. Stay tuned in the INVI newsletter! Read more about INVI's compass and model here.
Want to get trained in INVI's Atlas? Then check out our masterclasses here.